What is the Prisoner Early Release Scheme (Progression model) and what is changing on 1 October 2026?
The Government is introducing changes to prison release arrangements through the Sentencing Act 2026. These changes are intended to help ensure there is enough space in prisons, while making sure there is tough supervision of offenders when they are released to keep victims and the wider public safe.
The Sentencing Act 2026 makes changes to the amount of time some offenders spend in prison before being released to serve the rest of their sentence on licence.
A new three-part model will be introduced for standard determinate sentences called a ‘Progression Model’. Protecting victims remains a priority. All offenders released through the Progression Model will be subject to strict licence conditions and a period of intensive supervision
Learn MoreHow will I know if my offender is being released?
If you are eligible for, and have signed up for the victim contact scheme, you should receive information about an offender’s early release and can also make representations about licence conditions. It is very important to sign up to the scheme if you are eligible and to ensure your contact details are kept up to date. You can sign up at any time during an offender’s sentence.
The changes do not apply to more than 18,000 offenders. For a list of offences that this model does not apply to visit sentencing act offence exclusions (opens in new window).
More information about the Progression Model, what is changing, how victims can be informed and what support is available can be found at: A guide for victims about the changes to prison release arrangements – GOV.UK (opens in new window)
Learn MoreHow to access support
If you have been affected by these changes or are worried about the release of offenders, local services are available to support you. Find out how to access support below.
Victim Support’s dedicated Offender Release Helpline provides information, emotional and practical support, and help to access other services for people affected by, or worried about, the release of an offender.
The Helpline is there to:
- Listen to victims and survivors’ concerns and offer emotional support
- Discuss wellbeing, safety and possible next steps
- Provide practical guidance and help callers understand what the changes may mean
- Explain how someone may be able to seek further information, the Helpline cannot provide information about individual offenders or case specific release dates.
- Help people access ongoing or specialist support where appropriate
You can contact the Helpline on 0808 168 9280.
Further information about the Helpline and the support available can be found at https://victimsupport.org.uk/offender-release-helpline.
HelplineSpecialist Support Available in South Wales
With support from funding by the Ministry of Justice, the South Wales Police and Crime Commissioner has commissioned a single point of contact locally across South Wales, in the form of a Multi-Crime Early Release Scheme (ERS) Victims’ Champion.
Our specialist Victims’ Champion will work alongside victim and survivors affected by changes early release scheme, helping them to feel safe, informed and supported.
The Multi-Crime Early Release Victims Champion will provide:
- Advocacy and liaison with police, probation, courts and other agencies to help gather information and ensure your voice is heard.
- Individual needs assessments to identify support requirements and develop appropriate safety and support plans.
- Practical support and signposting, including assistance with housing issues, education concerns, and protective orders.
- Coordination with support services and partner agencies to ensure you receive joined-up support and access to the help available locally.
To access support from the Multi-Crime Early Release Champion, you can contact South Wales Victim Focus on 0300 303 0161.
Alternatively, you can self-refer via the website Victim/Witness Referral – South Wales Victim Focus
SupportAdditional support.
If you have previously received support from a local victim or support service, you may wish to contact them again if you are affected by the early release scheme.
If you would like to explore other sources of support, please see the list of services below and visit our Victims’ Directory, which provides details of local and national specialist organisations.
Victims Directory – Victims Directory – South Wales Police and Crime Commissioner
For confidential information, advice or support around domestic abuse and sexual violence, please know that you can contact the Live fear Free Helpline.
You can contact the Live Fear Free Helpline on:
Call: 0808 80 10 800 (available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week)
Text: 07860077333 (available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week)
Email: info@livefearfreehelpline.wales (available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week)
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